PMI Updated PMI-RMP Exam Questions and Answers by lili

After analyzing the information collected from individual project team members, the risk manager's primary output is an updated risk register. The risk register is a key document in risk management, containing all identified risks, their analysis, and the planned responses. As new information is gathered and analyzed, the risk register is updated to reflect the current status of each risk, any changes in their probability or impact, and any adjustments to the risk response plans.

PMI emphasizes that the risk register should be continually updated throughout the project to ensure that all risks are properly managed and documented​​.

To determine whether to purchase the new component, we can perform an Expected Monetary Value (EMV) analysis for both scenarios: purchasing the component and not purchasing it.

1. Purchasing the New Component:

Probability of Success: 70% (0.7)

Profit if Successful: US$500,000

EMV of Success: 0.7 * $500,000 = $350,000

Probability of Failure: 30% (0.3)

Additional Cost if Failed: US$50,000

EMV of Failure: 0.3 * (-$50,000) = -$15,000

Cost of Component: -$100,000

Total EMV: $350,000 (success) - $15,000 (failure) - $100,000 (cost) = $235,000

2. Not Purchasing the New Component:

Probability of Failure: 80% (0.8)

Cost if Failed: US$250,000

EMV of Failure: 0.8 * (-$250,000) = -$200,000

Probability of Success: 20% (0.2)

Profit if Successful: US$0 (assuming no additional profit without the component)

EMV of Success: 0.2 * $0 = $0

Total EMV: $0 (success) - $200,000 (failure) = -$200,000

Comparing the two scenarios, purchasing the new component yields a positive EMV of $235,000, whereas not purchasing it results in a negative EMV of -$200,000. Therefore, from a risk management perspective, it is advisable to purchase the new component.

PMI Risk Management Study Guide References:

The PMI-RMP Exam Preparation Study Guide discusses the application of Expected Monetary Value (EMV) analysis in decision-making under uncertainty, providing a structured approach to evaluate potential financial outcomes.

 The risk matrix heat map is a graphical tool that displays the probability and impact of risks in a project. The horizontal axis represents the probability of occurrence, and the vertical axis represents the impact rating. The colors indicate the level of risk exposure, from green (low) to red (high). The risk in question is located in the upper right quadrant of the matrix, which means it has a high impact rating. The probability of occurrence can be estimated by looking at the scale on the horizontal axis. The risk is slightly to the left of the 50% mark, which means it has a probability of occurrence of about 40%. Therefore, the correct statement that describes the risk is B. The risk has a probability of 40% of occurrence and a high impact rating. References: PMI, The Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs, and Projects, 2019, p. 104-105.

In this instance, the project manager should use quantitative analysis to simulate the overall risk outcome. Quantitative analysis techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation or decision tree analysis, can be used to model the combined effect of individual risks on project objectives. By leveraging historical data, the project manager can generate more accurate and reliable risk assessments, which can help inform risk response strategies and improve project decision-making.

Quantitative analysis is a type of risk analysis that numerically analyzes the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives 1. It involves using historical data and other information to estimate the probability and impact of risks, and then applying mathematical techniques such as simulation, sensitivity analysis, decision tree analysis, orexpected monetary value analysis to quantify the overall risk exposure of the project 2. Quantitative analysis can provide more accurate and objective results than qualitative analysis, which relies on subjective judgments and ratings. Quantitative analysis can also help the project manager prioritize risks, determine the optimal risk response strategy, and allocate contingency reserves 3. Therefore, the correct answer is D.

References: 1: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Sixth Edition, page 4311 2: PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP)® Examination Content Outline, page 102 3: Quantifying risk - Project Management Institute, page 11